Metaculus is hosting the Road to recovery forecasting tournament, a forecasting tournament on mobility trends in the United States.

Our aim with this tournament is to generate accurate predictions on US mobility trends to assist with transit planning during our current turbulent moment.

In addition to the reputation benefits you will accrue for out-predicting the Metaculus crowd, we will award prizes to each of the top four predictors:

• $600 for first prize
• $350 for second prize
• $150 for third prize

These are to be awarded to the users with the highest number of points on the tournament's end date.

There is one small catch: in order to be eligible for prizes, you'll need comment explaining the reasoning behind your forecasts or significant updates. Specifically, we require you to share your reasoning on at least 5 occasions over the course of the tournament.