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📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

Question Series

The Bryan Caplan Collection

Start DateMar 21, 2024
End DateDec 31, 2045
Questions9

Welcome to The Bryan Caplan Collection, where you can predict the outcomes of economist Bryan Caplan's wagers on topics like economic growth, climate change, college attendance, and more.

Bryan Caplan is an economics professor at George Mason University, a New York Times bestselling author writing at Bet On It, and he maintains a public inventory of his bets with academics, researchers, and pundits on a wide variety of topics.

Caplan has logged more than 20 public bets going back nearly two decades and has yet to lose a single one. Still, he concedes his streak is unlikely to continue much longer and wrote in 2020: "Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting."

Thank you to Bryan Caplan for his involvement in this question series.

Series Contents