Welcome to The Bryan Caplan Collection, where you can predict the outcomes of economist Bryan Caplan's wagers on topics like economic growth, climate change, college attendance, and more.
Bryan Caplan is an economics professor at George Mason University, a New York Times bestselling author writing at Bet On It, and he maintains a public inventory of his bets with academics, researchers, and pundits on a wide variety of topics.
Caplan has logged more than 20 public bets going back nearly two decades and has yet to lose a single one. Still, he concedes his streak is unlikely to continue much longer and wrote in 2020: "Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting."
From Caplan's 'The Bettor's Oath'
"Blathering talk surrounds us, but I will take no part in it. My word is my bet; I will always put my money where my mouth is. When challenged, I will bet on my words, refine them, or recant. When no one is present to challenge me, I will weigh my words and thoughts as if my fellow oath-takers were listening.
I will make both conditional and unconditional bets, and assign probabilities whenever asked. I will claim no false certainty; unless I will stake my life on my belief, I am not truly certain – and will admit it.
When I lose a bet, I will admit defeat, pay promptly, and hold my tongue – never protesting that I was “really right.” If I have caveats or reservations, I will declare them when I make the bet – not after I lose it.
When I win a bet, I will not shame my opponent, for a betting loser has far more honor than the mass of men who live by loose and idle talk. I pledge my mind and words to the bettor’s oath, for this day and all the days to come…
Unless something in this oath turns out to be wrong, an eventuality to which I assign a 3% probability."
Additional Information
This question series includes both ongoing bets detailed in his public inventory and wagers he has offered to make over the years that are not included in the inventory.
Though not part of this collection, you can still forecast on When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?
Finally, the college enrollment question in this series is a resolution-reversed version of this previously opened question. We included this new question to maintain consistency, where Yes resolutions indicate Caplan won his bet.
Thank you to Bryan Caplan for his involvement in this question series.