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📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

Climate Tipping Points

prize pool$5,000
Start DateJan 27, 2023
End DateMar 1, 2027
Questions43

The news about Earth’s changing climate can feel very negative, often focusing on "tipping points" — irreversible, damaging changes that may occur once certain climate thresholds are reached. These tipping points, such as the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet or the dieback of the Amazon Rainforest, are expected to occur as we approach a warming of 1.5°C or higher and could lead to catastrophic changes on earth. However, positive climate tipping points, which could lead to a more sustainable and livable future, have also been identified. Research shows that these positive tipping points, such as a threshold in the adoption of electric vehicles or changes in food consumption habits, could rapidly accelerate the transition to a decarbonized economy.

We're proud to collaborate with our nonprofit partner The Federation of American Scientists to use forecasting to better understand trends, factors, and policies that may influence and encourage zero-emission vehicle adoption. By generating forecasts, conditional predictions, and causal models of the ZEV landscape, the Climate Tipping Points Tournament aims to provide useful information to policymakers.

prizing structure

Questions