M

📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

Question Series

Effective Institutions Project

Start DateOct 10, 2023
End DateJan 1, 2030
Questions11
A collection of questions about key uncertainties surrounding some of the most important institutions in the world, curated in collaboration with the Effective Institutions Project.

The Effective Institutions Project (EIP) conducts research, devises strategies, and mobilizes funding and talent to prompt the world’s most important institutions to take actions that lead to better outcomes for humanity. Metaculus and EIP are partnering to launch a series of forecasting questions that get to the heart of core uncertainties about the institutions that EIP has identified as having the most significant impact on the lives of current and future generations. Currently, forecasting questions are being sourced from EIP’s newsletter, The Observatory.

Your forecasts will provide insights surrounding events EIP has identified as being key developments to watch, with the aim of improving the quality of strategic decision-making both at EIP and in the wider ecosystem. We are incredibly grateful to the Metaculus community for contributing their expertise in support of the mission of improving institutional decision-making!

Series Contents