GiveWell’s mission is to identify the charities that save or improve lives the most per dollar. As part of that mission, they regularly share public forecasts on the grant outcomes they expect. Now GiveWell wants to hear from you: Forecast and share your reasoning to provide feedback on real-world funding decisions. You’ll help GiveWell help others, and you can win cash prizes for your insights.
Click the below toggle to learn about the $1,000 commenting prize and judging criteria — or start forecasting and commenting on the questions in the below feed. Submit your comments by December 1st for a chance to win.
Commenting Prize Rules (click to expand)
- A total prize pool of $1,000 will be awarded for comments on eligible questions made before December 1, 2024. Questions are tagged with "Forecast with GiveWell Comment Prize" and can be accessed via this link.
- The five best comments, selected by GiveWell researchers, will each receive $200. A single commenter can win multiple prizes, up to a maximum of $400.
- Comments will be evaluated on the following criteria:
- Clarity: Clear presentation of the author’s reasoning and conclusion.
- Reasoning: A well-supported prediction that demonstrates a deep understanding of the question and uses available evidence effectively.
- Impact: The comment should have the potential to shift or reinforce GiveWell’s confidence in their own prediction.
Metaculus will collect and share top-quality comments with GiveWell researchers after the submission deadline, with prizes awarded once scoring is completed in January 2025.
To be eligible for a prize you cannot be employed by GiveWell, be the immediate family member of someone employed by GiveWell, or share a household with someone employed by GiveWell.