September 30, 2023 Update: Virginia public health officials have concluded their consultation of forecast data. Thank you for sharing your predictions and supporting their decision making efforts! Though data will no longer be shared with VDH, the tournament continues.

March 30, 2023 Update: Learn about the impact your forecasts have already made here.

Welcome to the Keep Virginia Safe II Tournament! This is Metaculus’s second tournament contributing forecasts written in conjunction with the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute to support decision-making at the Virginia Department of Health.

In April 2021, Metaculus and VDH launched the Keep Virginia Safe Tournament — a 12-month forecasting tournament comprising three rounds of COVID-19 and other public health policy questions. With over 224 participating Metaculus forecasters, 14,937 individual predictions, and 86 total aggregate forecasts, Keep Virginia Safe (KVS) managed to deliver early-warning signals to the VDH team, its in-state partners, and the public. These forecasts helped anticipate the effects of COVID-19, the impact of new variants, and the effectiveness of outreach and vaccine campaigns. The forecasts supported policy decisions, program development, and the effective deployment of resources. Throughout 2021, Metaculus launched two additional tournaments to support KVS — Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making and the Virginia Lightning Round Tournament.

Metaculus is proud to again contribute predictions supporting VDH and UVA’s vital work, with the launch of the Keep Virginia Safe II Tournament.