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📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

Question Series

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Start DateJun 23, 2021
End DateJan 15, 2100
Questions65

The Nuclear Risk Horizons Project contains all of the long-term questions that are sponsored by Rethink Priorities as part of their nuclear risk research. Most of these questions resolve by 2030, 2035, or 2050. As with the Nuclear Risk Tournament, forecasts, comments, and essays produced for this project will inform and in some cases be featured within Rethink Priorities’ other research, and some will be packaged for and directly shared with some key decision-makers.

The questions in this project will also be used in a fortified essay competition with the winners receiving The Szilard Prize. This essay competition will open in November 2021 and will close in December, with a prize pool of $1,000. More details about that prize will be announced soon.

Forecasters are invited to participate in these critical questions to help inform policy decisions, and hopefully reduce the risk of catastrophe.

Happy Forecasting!

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