The Respiratory Outlook 2024/25 is a collaboration between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Metaculus. Metaculus Community forecasts are shared with the CDC and do not necessarily reflect CDC views.
Building on the Respiratory Outlook 2023/24, the 2024/25 Outlook provides forecasts on the disease burden of influenza, COVID-19, and RSV. You can support efforts to anticipate disease trends by adding your forecasts to the aggregate.
This project is supported by the National Science Foundation under Award No. 2438211. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this project are those of Metaculus and our forecasters, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
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This initiative features questions on the trajectories and peaks of COVID-19, influenza, and RSV, as well as relevant questions on vaccine uptake and the potential for new variants.
The program end date is July 1, 2026, to accommodate some questions that depend on studies analyzing the 2024/25 respiratory disease season. Medals will be awarded based on the questions that have resolved by that date. The program includes some longer term questions aimed at providing valuable information to public-health decision-makers which will resolve afterwar July 1, 2026, but will not count toward medals. Learn more about scoring.
Eight Metaculus Pro Forecasters are participating and will share their predictions and rationales with the community.
Federal rules prohibit us from offering a prize pool. However, we hope this constraint helps to underscore the importance of the initiative, and we do intend to recognize top forecasters for their valuable contributions.