Clearer Thinking has launched Transparent Replications, a project supporting greater reproducibility in psychological science by performing replications of new studies and celebrating high quality research.

Reproducibility is a core feature of scientific inquiry. The ongoing replication crisis has called into question a number of high-profile research findings. Transparent Replications will harness Metaculus community forecasts in support of more replicable science.

For this initiative, Clearer Thinking randomly selects recently published psychology papers from the most prestigious journals and carefully conducts studies aiming to replicate their main findings. The Metaculus community will forecast whether these studies are likely to replicate. Together we will learn how accurately the Metaculus community is able to predict successful replications, potentially opening up a larger role for forecasting in the reproducibility movement. Forecasts could be valuable in identifying studies that warrant replication attempts, or could help incentivize reproducible research with less need for costly replications.

New studies will be periodically added. Questions will resolve as studies conclude and results are reported.

We invite you to forecast on this project, and we thank you for contributing to reliable, reproducible scientific research!


Clearer Thinking’s mission is to close the gap between insights from research about human behavior and actions in the real world. Learn more about Clearer Thinking's mission here.

Transparent Replications is an ongoing project and the tournament end date was set at an arbitrary point in the future.