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📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

Tournament

Ukraine Conflict

prize pool$10,000
Start DateFeb 25, 2022
End DateJul 2, 2024
Questions101

On Feb 23, 2022 peace in Europe was shattered when Russia began a full scale invasion of Ukraine. At this critical time, trustworthy forecasts are greatly needed to help both the public and policymakers track and understand the evolving conflict and its implications.

Forecasts in this series will be updated over the coming days and weeks, and will cover a range of topics:

  • Likelihood of invasion into new territories
  • Troop movements
  • Conflict casualties
  • Social and political implications
  • Energy infrastructure
  • Sanctions and other policy responses
  • US-Russia diplomacy
  • Chinese response
  • Economic impact

In the runup to the invasion, the Metaculus Community rated the possibility of a Russian invasion as greater than many commentators, with a Community Prediction in mid-January indicating invasion was more likely than not. This was the history of the community’s steadily increasing forecast on whether Russia would invade Ukraine in 2022, before the invasion on the 23rd of February:

  • 35% on Dec 12th
  • 52% on Jan 18th
  • 65% on Feb 12th
  • 75% on Feb 19th
  • 89% on Feb 22nd

Our aim at Metaculus is to serve as a trustworthy source of information on likely outcomes, and to help people take action to avert unnecessary suffering.

We strongly believe that credible forecasting can help clarify and ground discussions, while pointing to opportunities for de-escalation. We appreciate the contributions of the entire forecasting community to this series

If you have any questions that you believe are important or useful, we are eager to hear your suggestions, which you can post as a comment in this thread.

Questions