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đź“– The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

Question Series

đź—˝Forecast the State of the Union đź—˝

Start DateSep 18, 2024
End DateJan 1, 2030
Questions17
While Americans' priorities shift over time, core concerns like the economy, healthcare, immigration, crime, federal spending, and the environment remain constant. This project dives into predicting the future of these key indicators.

Can the government meet its policy goals? Will new laws steer the US in the right direction? Make your predictions now and see if you can forecast the state of the union.

You can also find conditional questions asking about these outcomes depending on the candidate elected in 2024 in the 2024 Electoral Consequences project.

Series Contents