Forecasting for a complex world
Metaculus offers trustworthy forecasting and modeling infrastructure for forecasters, decision makers, and the public.Focus Areas
We create forecasts and advance research, decision making, and policy in four main topic areas.
biosecurity
Improving global health by understanding infectious diseases and preparing for future pandemicsSee ForecastsAI progress
Exploring the future of artificial intelligence technologies and the impacts to societySee Forecastsnuclear security
Quantifying global risks to keep us safe and secure for a flourishing futureSee Forecastsclimate change
Predicting long-term shifts in temperature and weather patterns caused by human activitySee ForecastsForecasting Tournaments
Join our tournaments and predict real world events, timelines, and impacts and win prizes for accuracy.
Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
Metaculus Cup Fall 2025
RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge
AI Pathways Tournament
Research & Updates
Our partners use Metaculus forecasts to gain insight into complex challenges and decisions.
Report: Pro Forecasters Expect Steady NIH and NSF Funding
Despite proposed reductions from the Trump Administration, a new Metaculus report indicates that Ame...
Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
When does political conflict become institutional crisis? Are courts being defied? Is voting access ...
Introducing Comments of the Week
Forecasts are more informative and useful to your fellow forecasters and to the wider public when th...
Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index
Metaculus has partnered with Convergence Analysis to launch the AI Diffusion Index based on their re...
Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots
By Ben Wilson and John Bash Main Takeaways Top Findings: Pro forecasters significantly outperform...
Engage with Metaculus
Learn how you can partner with Metaculus to host a forecasting tournament, collaborate on forecasting research, hire our Pro Forecasters for custom projects, or set up a private forecasting space for your organization.
We love working with non-profits in our core focus areas. If you’re a non-profit seeking forecasting and modeling capacity or are interested in collaborating on a grant, please reach out!