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kokotajlod
Predictions
686
Comments
384
Member Since
January 2016
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by kokotajlod
By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?
15%
123 forecasters
20
23 comments
23
If and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially?
30%
29 forecasters
11
22 comments
22
AI Technical Benchmarks
When will credible sources reveal the existence of something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger?
2024-10-28
73 forecasters
14
22 comments
22
AI Technical Benchmarks
Will EVE Online die by 2020?
Resolved :
No
10%
84 forecasters
4
6 comments
6