Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
ignorance.prior
Predictions
122
Comments
152
Member Since
June 2016
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by ignorance.prior
How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?
Resolved :
3.66M
3.56M
98 forecasters
12
35 comments
35
What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?
Resolved :
18.6k
18.5k
117 forecasters
28
67 comments
67
What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?
Resolved :
0.00416
0.00587
363 forecasters
109
351 comments
351
Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?
31.9%
39 forecasters
7
4 comments
4
Will the FDA authorise the use of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 by the end of 2020?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
60%
75 forecasters
19
37 comments
37
Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament
Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?
Resolved :
Yes
93%
63 forecasters
10
24 comments
24
Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament
Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?
Resolved :
No
80%
236 forecasters
37
209 comments
209
If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?
Resolved :
5.67M
2.89M
66 forecasters
8
24 comments
24
For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?
Resolved :
Above upper bound
60
74 forecasters
7
55 comments
55
Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament
Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?
Resolved :
No
3%
206 forecasters
16
42 comments
42
Load More