Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Pablo
Predictions
9512
Comments
815
Member Since
July 2016
links
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Pablo
In 2022, will the Future Fund give more than Open Philanthropy to longtermist causes?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
24.2%
57 forecasters
10
14 comments
14
By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?
Resolved :
No
79%
31 forecasters
4
4 comments
4
By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?
Resolved :
4.22
4.08
18 forecasters
1
8 comments
8
By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?
Resolved :
2.94
1.5
20 forecasters
3 comments
3
By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?
Resolved :
0.169
0.183
13 forecasters
3
1 comment
1
By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?
Resolved :
0.0377
0.0803
24 forecasters
4
12 comments
12
By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?
Resolved :
177k
204k
17 forecasters
2
3 comments
3
In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]
Resolved :
Jan 7, 2021
2021-01-08
180 forecasters
37
136 comments
136
Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?
Resolved :
No
15%
91 forecasters
7
25 comments
25
[short fuse] Given that the NYT publishes an article on Scott Alexander, will it include his full name?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
60%
304 forecasters
65
108 comments
108
Load More