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Tamay
Predictions
2546
Comments
3148
Member Since
April 2018
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Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Tamay
How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years?
2025
220k
2024
100k
2023
50.9k
4
7 comments
7
Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?
15%
19 forecasters
9
4 comments
4
When will an ML model achieve 90% of human-crowd performance on Autocast?
2026-09-04
31 forecasters
13
5 comments
5
AI Technical Benchmarks
Results from the AI Progress Essay Contest
12
3 comments
3
AI Progress Essay Contest
Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?
Resolved :
No
1%
68 forecasters
10
3 comments
3
Business of AI
Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?
Resolved :
No
1%
57 forecasters
13
2 comments
2
Business of AI
What will be the total aggregate score given to Russia by Freedom House in 2023?
Resolved :
Annulled
13.2
36 forecasters
3
7 comments
7
Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?
Resolved :
Yes
90%
23 forecasters
7
2 comments
2
What will the largest Common Crawl be, in TiB, by 2032?
1.09k
12 forecasters
9
4 comments
4
AI Progress Essay Contest
How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?
Resolved :
2.1×10²⁵
1.3×10²⁵
46 forecasters
11
15 comments
15
AI Technical Benchmarks
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