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AABoyles
Predictions
1257
Comments
593
Member Since
July 2018
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by AABoyles
When will the Metaculus Algorithm break its worst prediction record?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
2029-04-18
4 forecasters
2
6 comments
6
When will the Metaculus Community break its worst prediction record?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
2025-01-17
4 forecasters
2
5 comments
5
Are We Surprised by AI Milestones?
8
1 comment
1
AI Progress Essay Contest
Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?
Resolved :
Yes
53%
113 forecasters
8
58 comments
58
What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?
Resolved :
240
239
30 forecasters
3
13 comments
13
If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?
Resolved :
Yes
75%
370 forecasters
55
135 comments
135
When will the Catholic Church Elect a new Pope?
2025-11-14
116 forecasters
21
42 comments
42
Verity
What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?
Resolved :
0.694
0.619
29 forecasters
7 comments
7
Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?
Resolved :
No
1%
121 forecasters
16
14 comments
14
Business of AI
Will the next US recession turn into a depression?
Resolved :
No
8%
175 forecasters
26
40 comments
40
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