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dan

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Member SinceSeptember 2018

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A Preliminary Look at Metaculus and Expert Forecasts

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

140 forecasters

12

LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?

4

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

Lightning Round Tournament Question 2.3.0

5

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?

Resolved :10.9M12.8M

7

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?

Resolved :1.15M1.15M

110 forecasters

12

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

Lightning Round Tournament Discussion 1.0

7

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?

Resolved :May 9, 20202020-05-04

9

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?

Resolved :337k147k

14

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?

Resolved :2.27k2.24k

5

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round