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Matthew_Barnett
Predictions
1505
Comments
646
Member Since
November 2018
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Matthew_Barnett
When will a reliable and general household robot be developed?
2033-09-11
50 forecasters
15
11 comments
11
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?
Resolved :
No
0.1%
134 forecasters
14
25 comments
25
How many registrations will there be for the FY2024 H1B cap lottery?
Resolved :
781k
799k
9 forecasters
2
2 comments
2
What credence will the US government assign to existential risk from AI in the next 30 years before 2025?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
0.00655
22 forecasters
8
10 comments
10
Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?
1.5×10²⁹
7 forecasters
9
3 comments
3
AI Technical Benchmarks
When will most Americans personally know someone who has dated an AI?
2032-08-03
87 forecasters
9
12 comments
12
How many months in prison will Avraham Eisenberg be sentenced to before 2030?
111
9 forecasters
4
5 comments
5
Will Avraham Eisenberg be convicted of a felony in the United States before 2028?
Resolved :
Yes
74%
42 forecasters
8
24 comments
24
When will the first fully automated McDonalds open in the United States?
2030-03-12
92 forecasters
20
22 comments
22
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2030?
300
44 forecasters
8
29 comments
29
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