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jacob.pfau
Predictions
226
Comments
120
Member Since
September 2019
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by jacob.pfau
When will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad?
2025-12-06
21 forecasters
8
17 comments
17
condition
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
3 forecasters
if yes
if no
US : China Number of ML Systems (2030)
2.34
Resolved :
Annulled
2.34
US : China Number of ML Systems (2030)
3.07
Resolved :
Annulled
3.07
2
2 comments
2
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
Resolved :
Yes
9 forecasters
if yes
if no
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2026-04-19
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2025-11-23
Resolved :
Annulled
2025-11-23
4
no comments
0
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
Resolved :
Yes
24 forecasters
if yes
if no
Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?
5%
5%
Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?
40%
40%
Resolved :
Annulled
40%
3
no comments
0
Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?
15%
101 forecasters
19
12 comments
12
AI Safety
When will an AI solve half the questions on a Miklós Schweitzer competition?
2026-11-06
18 forecasters
5
3 comments
3
AI Demonstrations
In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?
Closed
73%
35 forecasters
5
3 comments
3
AI Technical Benchmarks
How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025?
Closed
0.159
18 forecasters
10
15 comments
15
AI Progress Essay Contest
What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?
Resolved :
56.8
42.1
80 forecasters
17
3 comments
3
What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
0.098
40 forecasters
10
21 comments
21
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