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NathanpmYoung
Predictions
2903
Comments
244
Member Since
February 2020
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by NathanpmYoung
Will Zelenskyy be re-elected as President of Ukraine before 2028?
3 forecasters
Revealed
in 3 days
2
1 comment
1
Will any of these AI companies be nationalized before Jan 1st 2030?
Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"
75%
Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"
40%
Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"
34%
9 others
2 comments
2
Nathan Young's Community
Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?
Resolved :
No
11%
44 forecasters
3
23 comments
23
Will Josh Silverman continue to be CEO of Etsy until 2029?
48.2%
4 forecasters
-1
2 comments
2
Will Vladimir Tenev continue to be CEO of RobinHood until 2029?
38.5%
5 forecasters
1
2 comments
2
Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025?
Resolved :
No
0.1%
16 forecasters
3
3 comments
3
What will be the Xclaim market price for FTX accounts, as a % of account balance, on April 1, 2024?
Resolved :
Above upper bound
85
7 forecasters
4 comments
4
Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024?
Resolved :
No
50%
23 forecasters
2
5 comments
5
Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?
2026
75%
2027
75%
2025
75%
3 others
3 comments
3
condition
Labour Majority After Next UK Election?
Resolved :
Yes
7 forecasters
if yes
if no
More than 200k UK houses built?
20%
20%
More than 200k UK houses built?
6%
6%
Resolved :
Annulled
6%
2
no comments
0
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