Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
evanbd
Predictions
1533
Comments
323
Member Since
March 2020
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by evanbd
Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?
Resolved :
No
1%
46 forecasters
6
3 comments
3
Superconductor Frontiers
Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?
Resolved :
No
0.5%
45 forecasters
2
10 comments
10
Superconductor Frontiers
What will be the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor before the given years?
2080
305
2050
243
2030
181
1 other
10
7 comments
7
Superconductor Frontiers
How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025?
5.57
55 forecasters
14
20 comments
20
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years?
2024
No
2023
No
2022
No
10
17 comments
17
How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026?
1.1
11 forecasters
6
8 comments
8
How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years?
2025
275
2024
253
2023
211
7
11 comments
11
Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?
Resolved :
No
1%
66 forecasters
11
15 comments
15
How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?
Resolved :
23
24.4
21 forecasters
5
20 comments
20
Will BB(5) be known by 2040?
Resolved :
Yes
99%
36 forecasters
8
14 comments
14
Load More