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amanda@ought

Predictions108

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Member SinceJune 2020

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Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?

Resolved :Yes70%

14

If California does not pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?

Resolved :Ambiguous270M

Possible Worlds Series (with Ought)

If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?

Resolved :298M295M

3

Possible Worlds Series (with Ought)

If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?

Resolved :460k460k

6

Possible Worlds Series (with Ought)

If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?

Resolved :Ambiguous411k

5

Possible Worlds Series (with Ought)

If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?

Resolved :12.9M14.1M

3

Possible Worlds Series (with Ought)

If Trump is re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?

Resolved :Ambiguous14M

3

Possible Worlds Series (with Ought)

If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?

Resolved :3.76k3.33k

5

Possible Worlds Series (with Ought)

If Trump is re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?

Resolved :Ambiguous3.37k

4

Possible Worlds Series (with Ought)

Possible Worlds Series

11

Possible Worlds Series (with Ought)