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Member SinceOctober 2020

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

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Exploring Metaculus’s AI Track Record

20

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Forecasting Nuclear Risk in 2022

34

Ukraine Conflict

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

4

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

1

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

3

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

6

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

-1

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

4

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project