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RyanBeck

Predictions8469

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Member SinceFebruary 2021

occupationForecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus

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Questions by RyanBeck

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What will happen next concerning the US executive order “Reevaluating And Realigning United States Foreign Aid”?

Created by RyanBeck on 2025-02

1

Before January 1, 2032, will an FDA-approved therapeutic intervention demonstrate a statistically significant reversal of at least 10 years in biological age in humans?

No forecasts yet

1

Foresight Institute

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

No forecasts yet

1

Foresight Institute

Will a partial reprogramming-based therapy receive regulatory approval for treating Alzheimer’s disease before January 1, 2035?

No forecasts yet

1

Foresight Institute

When will the following milestones in mapping and reconstruction of a mouse (or larger) brain be completed?

Annotated and labeled connectome ≥95% accurate

Digital mapping and simulation with ≥90% functional accuracy

No forecasts yet

1

Foresight Institute

What will the global median income or consumption per day be in 2030 in 2017 USD adjusted for purchasing power?

Threshold 2030 Open

What will the global labor share of gross domestic product be in 2030?

Threshold 2030 Open

What will the total world unemployment rate be in 2030?

Threshold 2030 Open

What % of current workers will be replaced by AI systems performing end-to-end labor in 2030?

1

Threshold 2030 Open

Winners of the Biosecurity Tournament Short-Term Phase

6

Biosecurity Tournament