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- July 17, 2021
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Forecaster Stats
Predictions
5368 predictions on 2492 questions (1315 resolved)
Comments
103 comments on 66 questions
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Global Trends 2022
- FluSight Challenge 2021/22
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Cultured Meat Tournament
- Biosecurity Tournament
- Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
- FluSight Challenge 2022/23
- 🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
- Regulation of AI
- Public Perception of AI
- AI Demonstrations
- Business of AI
- AGI Outcomes
- AI in China
- AI Technical Benchmarks
- AI Safety
- Chinese AI Chips
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
3733 unique forecasts on authored questions
Popular Questions
- When will we have transformative AI? (294 forecasts)
- Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025? (161 forecasts)
- Will mind uploading happen before AGI? (147 forecasts)
- Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026? (122 forecasts)
- What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI? (Government) (120 forecasts)