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will_aldred
Predictions
5423
Comments
116
Member Since
July 2021
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by will_aldred
When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?
Resolved :
Above upper bound
2025-01-01
29 forecasters
12
10 comments
10
Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence?
Resolved :
Yes
99.9%
23 forecasters
8
5 comments
5
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
10%
42 forecasters
6
3 comments
3
Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?
70%
41 forecasters
4
3 comments
3
Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?
5.62
32 forecasters
2
9 comments
9
Five Years After AGI
Five years after AGI, will there be widely available radical life extension treatment?
50%
71 forecasters
10
4 comments
4
Five Years After AGI
Five years after AGI, how many animals will be slaughtered in factory farms?
81.7B
19 forecasters
3
10 comments
10
Five Years After AGI
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
7%
46 forecasters
5
12 comments
12
Five Years After AGI
Five years after AGI, will an AI company be a military power?
10%
57 forecasters
6
20 comments
20
Five Years After AGI
Five years after AGI, how much democracy will there be?
13.5
31 forecasters
8
no comments
0
Five Years After AGI
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