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Lawrence
Predictions
47
Comments
53
Member Since
September 2021
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Lawrence
Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?
62%
29 forecasters
5
3 comments
3
Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates?
2032
60%
2026
40%
2024
5%
5
6 comments
6
Regulation of AI
When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?
2028-12-04
24 forecasters
12
10 comments
10
AI in China
When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?
2025-01-02
8 forecasters
5
no comments
0
AI in China
When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?
2025-01-22
63 forecasters
12
18 comments
18
AI in China
Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?
Resolved :
No
1%
97 forecasters
4
5 comments
5
Business of AI
When will Open-Assistant be available for public use via a web interface?
Resolved :
Apr 6, 2023
2023-07-19
11 forecasters
10
9 comments
9
Business of AI
Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?
65%
32 forecasters
9
6 comments
6
AI Technical Benchmarks
Will ChatGPT-like bots accurately describe their own reward mechanisms before 2025?
Resolved :
Annulled
50%
97 forecasters
14
23 comments
23
AI Demonstrations
How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?
2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31
50%
2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31
50%
2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31
30%
2 others
23
19 comments
19
Future of AI
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