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PhilippSchoenegger
Predictions
9375
Comments
699
Member Since
September 2021
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Overview
Track Record
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Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by PhilippSchoenegger
Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?
Resolved :
Yes
99.9%
106 forecasters
12
14 comments
14
🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?
Resolved :
Yes
85%
52 forecasters
4
14 comments
14
Global Pulse Tournament
How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo?
Resolved :
6
105
26 forecasters
4
2 comments
2
Global Pulse Tournament
What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024?
Resolved :
14.7
15.2
40 forecasters
6
5 comments
5
Global Pulse Tournament
Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?
Resolved :
No
1%
114 forecasters
10
17 comments
17
Global Pulse Tournament
How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024?
Resolved :
11
7.77
46 forecasters
6
19 comments
19
Global Pulse Tournament
Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?
Resolved :
No
2%
62 forecasters
4
2 comments
2
Global Pulse Tournament
Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?
Resolved :
No
2%
93 forecasters
9
20 comments
20
Global Pulse Tournament
Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?
Resolved :
No
1%
125 forecasters
9
14 comments
14
Global Pulse Tournament
Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?
Resolved :
No
1%
107 forecasters
6
5 comments
5
Global Pulse Tournament
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