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Dumbledores_Army
Predictions
3517
Comments
359
Member Since
January 2022
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Dumbledores_Army
Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before March 28, 2025?
Closed
15%
17 forecasters
no comments
0
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
When will the first person reach 150 years of age?
2131-07-17
14 forecasters
1
6 comments
6
When will the first man celebrate his 120th birthday?
2043-10-24
8 forecasters
5
1 comment
1
When will the next person reach 120 years of age?
2035-09-25
10 forecasters
5
5 comments
5
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
65%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
5%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?
15%
45 forecasters
2
12 comments
12
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Japan
2%
Saudi Arabia
1.8%
6 others
12
22 comments
22
Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR?
2040
14%
2030
7%
2025
No
9
15 comments
15
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
Resolved :
Yes
20 forecasters
if yes
if no
New Nuclear-Armed State by 2030?
54%
54%
New Nuclear-Armed State by 2030?
40%
40%
Resolved :
Annulled
40%
3
10 comments
10
2024 Electoral Consequences
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
Resolved :
Yes
29 forecasters
if yes
if no
10 or More Nuclear-Armed States by 2035?
75%
75%
10 or More Nuclear-Armed States by 2035?
61%
61%
Resolved :
Annulled
60.6%
4
8 comments
8
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
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