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zoehtwilliams
Predictions
0
Comments
1
Member Since
August 2022
Overview
Track Record
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Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by zoehtwilliams
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%
47 forecasters
6
2 comments
2
AI Safety
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?
Resolved :
Annulled
98%
6 forecasters
3
3 comments
3
Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025?
Level 3
No
Level 2
No
Level 1
No
10
12 comments
12
What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question?
Resolved :
37.1
46
38 forecasters
6
8 comments
8
What percent of voters will vote in favor of Sioux Falls' 2022 Slaughterhouse ballot question?
Resolved :
47.6
37
43 forecasters
4
28 comments
28
What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?
2025
84.5
2024
73.4
2023
54.5
1 other
7
6 comments
6
AI Technical Benchmarks