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jleibowich
Predictions
1
Comments
194
Member Since
November 2022
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by jleibowich
Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?
Resolved :
No
0.1%
786 forecasters
15
25 comments
25
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?
Resolved :
Yes
97%
390 forecasters
14
19 comments
19
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?
Resolved :
Yes
99%
785 forecasters
40
56 comments
56
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?
Resolved :
No
58%
248 forecasters
27
52 comments
52
🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?
Resolved :
Yes
99.9%
719 forecasters
22
34 comments
34
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will No Labels officially announce a presidential candidate before 2024?
Resolved :
Annulled
8%
22 forecasters
3
6 comments
6
🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?
50%
71 forecasters
14
3 comments
3
Future of AI
Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?
Resolved :
No
1%
39 forecasters
14
16 comments
16
Future of AI
Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?
Resolved :
No
0.1%
48 forecasters
12
5 comments
5
AI Safety
Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?
Resolved :
No
0.4%
132 forecasters
16
21 comments
21
AI Safety
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