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TNTOutburst
Predictions
22
Comments
154
Member Since
March 2023
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by TNTOutburst
In 2028, Will "Change in Average Inflation Rate" continue its 13-election win streak of predicting the US PV winner?
"Change in Average Inflation Rate" will be below 0% for the 2028 election (predicts a Republican PV Win)
?
"Change in Average Inflation Rate" will correctly predict the 2028 Popular Vote Winner
?
No forecasts yet
2
2 comments
2
If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?
2029-09-20
16 forecasters
9
16 comments
16
What MMLU benchmark score will Google DeepMind's Gemini model have on release?
Resolved :
71.8
74.4
19 forecasters
8
16 comments
16
How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?
Resolved :
4
4.03
46 forecasters
7
83 comments
83
Will Ukraine be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?
Nova Kakhovka
10%
Polohy
4.2%
Tokmak
4%
11 others
19
18 comments
18
What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?
Resolved :
76
82.8
52 forecasters
5
26 comments
26
When will a humanoid robot be created that the general public judges as indistinguishable from humans?
2050-02-01
63 forecasters
8
16 comments
16
AGI Outcomes
When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?
Resolved :
May 16, 2024
2024-06-10
116 forecasters
20
52 comments
52
Business of AI