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sandman
Predictions
65
Comments
34
Member Since
March 2023
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Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by sandman
Will cryptocurrencies account for at least 1% of U.S. retail payments before January 1, 2035?
90%
10 forecasters
1
1 comment
1
Foresight Institute
Will an FDA-approved diagnostic test that predicts individual response to longevity interventions be commercially available and covered by insurers by January 1, 2030?
55%
20 percentage points this week
8 forecasters
2
no comments
0
Foresight Institute
Which reproductive technology will achieve more clinical trial successes in human trait selection by 2035?
Embryo gene editing
45.85%
In vitro gametogenesis (IVG)
32.31%
Neither/Other
21.83%
2
no comments
0
Foresight Institute
Will an AI shopping agent service achieve significant commercial deployment by December 31, 2026?
95%
11 percentage points this week
6 forecasters
2
no comments
0
Foresight Institute
Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040?
25%
20 percentage points this week
8 forecasters
1
no comments
0
Foresight Institute
Before March 1, 2026, will Meta settle the lawsuit brought by state attorneys general alleging the platform(s) were designed to foster compulsive use by minors?
61%
22 forecasters
3
no comments
0
When will the first privately governed charter city have 10,000 residents?
2060-04-24
3 forecasters
3
no comments
0
Foresight Institute
What percentage of their January 2024 search interest will these longevity interventions retain in January 2030?
Senolytics
144
Epigenetic reprogramming
120
Ozempic
111
3 others
2
5 comments
5
Will equipment to make fuel from CO2 and water be deployed on Mars and make at least 1 ton per week of rocket fuel (methane) before 2030?
7%
36 forecasters
2
no comments
0
In what year will the first private citizen become a permanent off-Earth resident?
2062-12-06
27 forecasters
4
5 comments
5
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