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DavidA.B.Mathers
Predictions
0
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7
Member Since
July 2024
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Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by DavidA.B.Mathers
Will US government forbid an AI training run outside the US for national security reasons by 2038?
36%
7 forecasters
1
2 comments
2
David Mathers' Community
When will models hit 97.5% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version)
Resolved :
Annulled
49%
1 forecaster
1
2 comments
2
David Mathers' Community
When will models hit 90% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version)
2025-09-21
13 forecasters
2
no comments
0
David Mathers' Community
What % of prime labor age (29-54) US citizens will be employed after an AI growth explosion.
No forecasts yet
1
2 comments
2
David Mathers' Community
Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication
2026-11-05
2 forecasters
1
no comments
0
David Mathers' Community
When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus
2028-02-11
17 forecasters
1
4 comments
4
David Mathers' Community
Will AGI-caused economic growth lead to lab-grown meat pushing out factory farming?
30%
8 forecasters
1
no comments
0
David Mathers' Community
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)?
2025-08-04
1 forecaster
no comments
0
David Mathers' Community
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)
2025-05-18
1 forecaster
no comments
0
David Mathers' Community
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 2 AI (human-level reasoners)
2025-01-26
1 forecaster
no comments
0
David Mathers' Community
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