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Anthony
Predictions
789
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3087
Member Since
September 2015
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Track Record
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Questions by Anthony
A Primer on the Metaculus Scoring Rule
1
no comments
0
When will an AI agent be able to win Portal 2 on its first run?
2028-09-10
17 forecasters
14
18 comments
18
How far away is the nearest independent origination of life?
1×10¹⁶
42 forecasters
19
11 comments
11
When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?
2045-12-05
18 forecasters
15
10 comments
10
When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?
2025-12-22
35 forecasters
12
17 comments
17
Metaculus capabilities list (obsolete)
7
no comments
0
Prediction microteaming discussion
4
2 comments
2
Metaculus Meta
Metaculus Staffing News
14
4 comments
4
Metaculus Meta
If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
19%
54 forecasters
10
6 comments
6
Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?
Closed
0.1%
362 forecasters
53
84 comments
84
Business of AI
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