Date of Artificial General Intelligence

conditional

condition

3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?

12 forecasters

if yes

if no

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

2030-03-07

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

2030-03-11

no comments0

Make a Prediction

3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?	Date of Artificial General Intelligence
if yes	My Prediction: -
if no	My Prediction: -

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2199-12-25

...

2026-05-24 12:41

2030-03-07 06:27

2035-02-03 21:31

0.1%

Forecast Timeline

if No

if Yes

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Amazon (company)

Anthropic

Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? → Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

US restricts compute before 2026? → Date AIs Capable of Developing AI Software

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

17.2%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

Software engineering

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Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? → Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

US restricts compute before 2026? → Date AIs Capable of Developing AI Software

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

17.2%