Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)

conditional

condition

AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024?

17 forecasters

if yes

if no

Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)

21%

Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)

20%

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AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024?	Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)
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50%

community: 21%

Forecast Timeline

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if No

Authors:

NMorrison

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Conditional Cup

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Aerospace engineering

DeepMind

Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?

EU Regulations on Foundation Models? → Frontier Open-Source AI? (2028)

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

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Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Conditional Cup

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Aerospace engineering

DeepMind

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