2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris)

conditional

condition

Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024?

Resolved :No

if yes

if no

2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris)

91%

Resolved :Annulled

2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris)

99%

Resolved :Yes

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Make a Prediction

Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024?	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris)
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 91%

Forecast Timeline

Kamala Harris

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Conditional Cup

Elections

Who Will Win the Election? AI Predicts Electoral College Map

Newsweek•Oct 31, 2024

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads In 2 Surveys, Tie In 1 Other—As Race Tightens

Forbes•Nov 4, 2024

Harris Now Set for Narrow Win: Forecaster Who Predicted Trump Landslide

Newsweek•Nov 4, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Kamala Harris) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)

2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris)

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? → Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Conditional Cup

Elections

Who Will Win the Election? AI Predicts Electoral College Map

Newsweek•Oct 31, 2024

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads In 2 Surveys, Tie In 1 Other—As Race Tightens

Forbes•Nov 4, 2024

Harris Now Set for Narrow Win: Forecaster Who Predicted Trump Landslide

Newsweek•Nov 4, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch