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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2027-10-02
1525 forecasters
202
482 comments
482
AI Progress Essay Contest
When will at least a zettabyte of digital information be destroyed as the result of a single event?
2062-06-06
26 forecasters
7
15 comments
15
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2032-06-15
1432 forecasters
176
488 comments
488
AGI Outcomes
What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates?
June 30, 2025:
94.7
45 forecasters
12
38 comments
38
AI Technical Benchmarks
What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?
0.95
74 forecasters
23
16 comments
16
AI Technical Benchmarks
What will be the best perplexity score by a language model on the Penn Treebank (Word Level) by the end of 2024?
11.6
15 forecasters
5
3 comments
3
AI Technical Benchmarks
condition
3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?
12 forecasters
if yes
if no
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
2030-03-07
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
2030-03-11
7
no comments
0
If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?
25%
21 forecasters
3
1 comment
1
Chinese AI Chips
What will be the best score on the GAIA benchmark before 2025?
47
15 forecasters
7
2 comments
2
AI Benchmarks
Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
80%
70 forecasters
13
21 comments
21
Space Technology & Climate
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