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GustavoLacerda
Predictions
105
Comments
39
Member Since
March 2020
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by GustavoLacerda
Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?
Year: 2026 FLOPs: 10e26
?
Year: 2032 FLOPs: 10e30
?
Year: 2036 FLOPs: 10e32
?
2 others
No forecasts yet
4
3 comments
3
AI Technical Benchmarks
What will be the year-over-year growth (as a %) in additions to the NVD database in the years shown?
2024
Annulled
2028
Annulled
2032
Annulled
2 others
4 comments
4
When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?
AI theft force
19 Apr 2038
AI theft sanctions
4 Jan 2027
AI as WMDs
23 Jan 2026
1 other
11
15 comments
15
Will GPT-4 input and/or output images?
Input Yes, Output No
Yes
Input No, Output No
No
Input No, Output Yes
No
1 other
7
10 comments
10
AI Demonstrations
Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?
Resolved :
Yes
99%
107 forecasters
11
32 comments
32
Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?
Resolved :
No
1%
110 forecasters
9
25 comments
25
Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?
Resolved :
No
1%
224 forecasters
23
57 comments
57
Regulation of AI
Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?
Resolved :
No
10%
48 forecasters
7
6 comments
6
Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?
Resolved :
No
25%
80 forecasters
12
32 comments
32