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ADQ
Predictions
12862
Comments
932
Member Since
February 2024
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by ADQ
How Many States Will Split the Senate-Presidential Ticket in the 2024 US Election?
4
Yes
2
No
1
No
5 others
2
10 comments
10
When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?
2038-04-15
11 forecasters
3
2 comments
2
Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
3%
35 forecasters
12
19 comments
19
How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?
40.9
15 forecasters
5
3 comments
3
Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?
Resolved :
No
0.1%
40 forecasters
8
10 comments
10
When will OpenAI publicly release Sora, its text-to-video model?
2025-02-09
15 forecasters
10
7 comments
7
Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?
Resolved :
Yes
99%
42 forecasters
5
3 comments
3
Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament?
Gukesh Dommaraju
Yes
Fabiano Caruana
No
Ian Nepomniachtchi
No
5 others
8
18 comments
18
Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?
Resolved :
Yes
74.9%
93 forecasters
8
17 comments
17