Group

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Forecast Timeline

2028

2026

2025

2024

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
2028	30%

2026	27%

2025	24%

2024	no

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Effective Institutions Project

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Game theory

Mathematics

Elo rating system

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Effective Institutions Project

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Game theory

Mathematics

Elo rating system

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On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

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🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?