Question

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, will international trade of goods decline by at least 10% for at least 1 year in the following 5 years?

no comments0

Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction95%

Make a Prediction

community: 95%

median 95.0%mean 81.5%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear winter

International Trade Centre

Trade agreement

World Trade Organization

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear winter

International Trade Centre

Trade agreement

World Trade Organization

“Escalation Dominance” . . . and the Prospect of More Than 1,000 Holocausts

CounterPunch•Oct 1, 2024

The Dangerous Illusion of ‘Escalation Dominance’

Truth Dig•Oct 1, 2024

‘Escalation Dominance’ and the Prospect of More Than 1,000 Holocausts

AntiWar•Oct 2, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, will international trade of goods decline by at least 10% for at least 1 year in the following 5 years?

Make a Prediction

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

Comments

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?