Question

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction15%

Make a Prediction

community: 15%

median 15.0%mean 22.4%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37%

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Most Taiwanese believe China unlikely to invade in coming five years, poll shows

NBC•Oct 9, 2024

Poll: Most Taiwanese Would Fight Chinese Invasion, but Only Half Expect America to Help

Breitbart•Oct 11, 2024

Nuclear-Armed China Issues Weapons Use Warning

Newsweek•Oct 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37%

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%