Question

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved treatment?

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Total Forecasters76

Community Prediction226 (178 - 299)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>730

...

177.6

225.7

298.5

0.9%

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Biosecurity Tournament

Food and Drug Administration

Top virologist makes stunning claim about what'll happen when Trump takes office as Congo is put on 'max alert' for pandemic

Daily Mail•Dec 6, 2024

COVID Vaccine Injury Claims Could Take a Decade to Be Resolved: Report

Newsweek•Dec 3, 2024

FDA Under Trump and the Future of Psychedelics

Psychology Today•Dec 5, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved vaccine?

269

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?

65.5

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